Digital Health in the Age of Trump: What Should We Expect?
By Fard Johnmar
As the Trump Administration begins to take shape, many are asking what the new U.S. government will mean for digital innovation in health—an area that has flourished over the past eight years of the Obama presidency.
If the Affordable Care Act (ACA) is repealed (as appears likely), consumers, patients, insurers and others will face numerous challenges, especially from the perspective of managing more limited financial and human resources.
Although it is still early days, there are some signs coming out of Washington, and previously outlined conservatives’ plans for healthcare, that provide clues as to what may be in store.
The primary goal of heath policy efforts is to constrain overall health spending in the United States, especially from the perspective of government payers. The simple story is that the Obama Administration decided to address this problem by developing legislation that would change the private sector’s behaviors, partly by providing financial incentives to move from a fee-for-service payment system to one where payments were based on value delivered and improved health outcomes.
U.S. Representative Paul Ryan, who is now at the center of the legislative healthcare policy universe, and others have developed legislation/recommendations that are designed to sharply reduce government spending on healthcare via a range of tax and fiscal policies that:
- Sharply accelerate consumerism (individual financial responsibility)
- Reduce federal spending on government health programs/influence on the market
What could this mean for digital health?
New federal policies that expose consumers to much greater financial risk, place added cost pressures on states, hospitals, and providers and more may actually lead to increased investment in digital technologies in some of the following areas:
- Consumer-facing technologies: Consumers will be faced with using limited dollars to purchase healthcare plans on the open market and technology could help.
- Sensors and tracking technologies: From the consumer and payer perspective, expect the increased use of financial incentives by payers to reduce premiums, perhaps in exchange for allowing for the tracking and monitoring of consumer behavior to increase.
- Analytics/big data and population health management: Although the insurance expansion components of the ACA may fall to repeal, the cost saving-related regulations will likely stay. Population health management and analytics will continue to be vital.
- Artificial intelligence (AI) and smart assistants: As consumers, payers, hospitals and others seek to reduce their exposure to future financial risk, look for the increased use of behavior change support tools (AI virtual assistants) and other technologies.
The story of Trump and digital health is only just beginning
Clearly the weeks and months ahead will be a challenging period for consumers, payers, government officials, investors and others who have heavily invested in digital health under the assumption that the policies and approaches pursued under the Obama administration would continue.
To help people navigate the choppy waters ahead, I have developed two resources:
- E-book with additional insights on Trump and digital health: I have developed a publication that expands on the analysis presented in this article and will be updated on an ongoing basis. Click here to download the ebook
- Webinar on December 19 and 20 focused on Trump and digital health and more: I will be holding a special edition of my ongoing Signal vs. Noise Digital Health Webinar Series that will focus on how digital health may evolve in 2017 and the implications of a Trump presidency on the market. Click here to register