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Economy & Business Environment Blog

May
03
2017

America’s Foodies are Powering the Economy with Manufacturing Jobs

Authored by Gad Levanon and Diane Lim.

In a column last month, one of us detailed the long-term decline in manufacturing jobs. But it turns out that the somewhat gloomy story by no means pervades the whole manufacturing sector. On the upside, in April’s jobs report, it serves as a reminder of America’s impressive ability to make and manufacture food.

While overall manufacturing employment has been on a fairly constant upswing since 2010, it still remains more than 1.5 million jobs below its pre-recession level from 10 years ago. Although food manufacturing jobs, now at 1.6 million, comprise just 13 percent of total manufacturing jobs, food manufacturing has contributed more than all of the net new manufacturing jobs over the past year, as the rest of manufacturing has lost 3,000 jobs. And unlike the rest of manufacturing which has failed to get back to pre-recession employment levels, there are now over 100,000 more food manufacturing jobs than before the recession.

So why has food employment done so well?

One reason: despite food manufacturing being a “goods-producing” industry, the American consumer increasingly views food as more of an “experience” and less of just a “thing.” The growing preference for “food experiences” means higher demand for food and, ultimately, more jobs producing food. Start with the simple fact that food consumed away at restaurants now surpasses food consumed at home. Consider all the labor that goes into satisfying, for example, the young urban couple who now wants a distinctive presentation of the food — and to boot, a backstory of the ingredients in the food. Look no further than the rise of the “foodie” — a term that would leave most scratching their heads even a decade ago.

Second, demand for food is by necessity a constant, no matter our economic circumstances. It is not adversely affected by an economic downturn in the way purchases of durable or luxury goods — houses, cars, household appliances, even clothing — are. We have to eat, no matter where we eat, at home or at a restaurant. When incomes decline, we might tighten our food budgets by eating out less and substituting store-branded grocery items for national ones, but we cannot eliminate our food purchases.

Third, in contrast to some other things our country makes, the U.S. still has a “comparative advantage” in producing food. In the simplest of terms, America does food well. Among the reasons, the food “supply chain” journey still remains largely within our borders. This matters due to the perishable nature of food. Overall, the country has the benefit of close proximity between production, at food manufacturing facilities, and consumption, at grocery stores and restaurants.

And that supply-chain journey that food takes from farm to table has a dizzying array of steps in the process. As a Committee for Economic Development of The Conference Board report points out, the process involves and employs millions of people in a huge diversity of roles. By no means is it just workers in the food manufacturing industry, but people who work on the service side of food. For example, employment at food and beverage stores now far exceeds pre-recession levels, up more than 250,000 jobs over the past 10 years.

Apparently, we Americans especially enjoy our carbs and sweets, as employment in retail bakeries (think gourmet cupcakes) has increased by more than 25 percent in 10 years. And our growing preference to eat out shows in the employment numbers for restaurants and bars, now far above pre-recession levels by about 2 million jobs.

Even as our economy shifts from making things to providing experiences, the American “foodie” turns out to be a manufacturing and job creating powerhouse. So with today being Friday, let’s dine and drink to that!

Mar
29
2017

Three Trump Actions That Could Rattle Europe’s Economy

While no longer fashionable in the popular discourse, trade has been a key engine of prosperity. Relations across the Atlantic have been solid and deep but recent recommendations from the White House risk souring that economic friendship.

Admittedly, TTIP has never been really popular on both sides of the Atlantic, and the Trump Administration might well put the nail in the coffin. Today, maintaining the status quo looks like the best case scenario as a result of the following three Trump proposals. If they’re enacted, they look all but certain to keep Europe’s business and policymakers up at night.

1. The border adjustment tax

While still under consideration, the proposed border adjustment tax calls for goods and services entering America to face a price adjustment. It would resemble a VAT but a crucial difference is that it would apply only to imports. The Trump Administration and others in Washington suggest the idea as a way of collecting revenue to accommodate for the resulting shortfall from steep tax cuts, and to promote a protectionist agenda focused on “Buy American”.

Moving from a production to a destination-based tax system in the world’s leading economy can have gigantic consequences for business worldwide. Even though economic theory suggests that the tax could be entirely offset by an equivalent appreciation of the dollar, it is difficult to imagine that this happens entirely and fast enough to avoid adaptation measures.

The border adjustment tax could force European companies to cut costs to stay competitive and to reorganise their supply chains to source locally to serve the North American market. While there may be some advantages to that, such as being more environmentally friendly, local sourcing faces constraints of various kinds: availability of natural resources as well as capabilities and know-how that goes into the production of goods and services. As a result of the adjustments that the tax would engineer, business in the US and Europe will face higher costs. That will inevitably translate into higher prices for consumers.

2. TTIP is out; new tariffs may be in

Once upon a time, there were talks to harmonise regulations between America and the EU to strengthen trade and prepare the rules for the 21st century. Now discussions centre on complicating and increasing them. While TTIP remains in a deep freeze, talk of new fines coming out of the Trump White House are alive and well.

If the border adjustment tax does not go through, an increase in tariffs could be the other barrier to trade. One proposal under consideration – as an example – is to slap 100% tariffs on European meats and Vespa scooters. Tariffs would translate into much higher prices for American consumers and higher costs for American companies that use European products as intermediate input. Moreover, they are rarely unilateral: Since the border adjustment tax and ad-hoc tariffs are not compliant with the World Trade Organisation rules, these measures are likely to trigger retaliation.

A trade war would harm Europeans exporters that contribute to a surplus worth €100 billion with the US. This surplus derives from the export of goods divided between 11% of agricultural products and 88% manufacturers in 2016.

3. Corporate tax wars

It may surprise Europeans that the US corporate income tax rate ranks highest among mature economies, at 35%. To put that in perspective, the Finns pay 20%, the French pay 34%, the Irish pay 13%, and the Italians pay 28%. At the same time, revenue from corporate taxes as a percentage of GDP is among the lowest, because of loops in the tax law and profit shifting.

Corporate taxation (a national competence in the EU) is a delicate issue for Europeans – just consider the irritation from the $13 billion fine the Commission issued to Apple in 2016. Well-paid lawyers have engineered dizzying tax arrangements to take advantage of the lack of harmonisation in Europe and the loopholes created by the existence of a single market without a single taxation.

The risk of new tax competition from the US will likely exacerbate this tension among EU member states that use tax rates to compete amongst each other for business. Not only that: it would blow the new attempt by the European Commission to create a common tax base for large companies that operate in the single market (i.e., firms with a global turnover of over €750 million per year).

As a result, trust in the EU is damaged, fueled by eurosceptics who use the case of taxation to argue that the EU serves the purposes of multinationals better than its citizens. In the midst of this eternal contention, proving that large companies are willing to pay their fair share of taxes is left to individual will and stewardship.

This piece originally appeared in “EurActiv.”

Aug
17
2015

Does productivity mismeasurement matter?

In recent years, official estimates of labor productivity growth have shown a significant slowdown. But many argue that the government has failed to correctly estimate productivity. This argument was made recently in a Wall Street Journal article featuring Hal Varian, Chief Economist of Google. The piece prompted an elaborate discussion in the blogosphere.[1]

Mismeasurement of productivity likely results from mismeasurement in any of the three components used to construct productivity measures:

  1. The number of actual dollars being exchanged for production
  2. The real value of production, which adjusts the dollars paid for production for price changes and quality improvements
  3. Labor input or number of hours worked, which is used to calculate real value of production per worker or hours of work

Most of the mismeasurement discussion has to do with the second point, the real value of production, and rightly so. Measurement issues with the actual number of dollars being exchanged for production or with labor input do not explain the productivity slowdown.

Read the rest of this entry »

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